Key Insights, Version 2.1

December 2004

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PERPLEXITIES :.

This is the third in a series of exploratory articles by Ralph Morin at KEY.

Throughput

Throughput. Kind of suggests the process of making sausages, doesn’t it? However, someone who speaks English and has never heard that particular word before, with a little reflection, can gather a rudimentary meaning of it, maybe from the context in which it is used and partly from the word itself. They then can come to a fairly clear definition in their mind of what it means. Children do it every day. They gather unfamiliar phrases and words and illuminate them in their minds against the background of known references and suggestions taken from the usage. Their knowledge base grows and becomes their key by which they gain access to the outside world.

Throughput is, according to www.dictionary.com, ‘The rate at which a processor can work expressed in instructions per second or jobs per hour or some other unit of performance.’ Ever since I completed my college level ‘Bonehead English’ course (required), I have been a confirmed admirer of the English language with all of the attendant glories and the soaring grandeur that it possesses. Fluency enables. It’s that simple. If you can communicate successfully with others who speak your native tongue, you will have an advantage over others who are less able to put two coherent words together. Unfortunately, there are many folks who have no inclination toward expressing themselves clearly. To get them through the day, they make do with a few clichés, recitations and homilies that they know will put them on a firm footing with the rest of the vast, unwashed masses who are listening for nothing better in their verbal ventures in their world.

One of the requirements of my English class was to take a tape recorder (ancient technology) out into the world and eavesdrop on conversations, transcribe the results and turn them in, laced with my comments. (Actually, I loved this assignment). What an eye opener! I’ve been doing it ever since, sans recorder. I discovered that people rarely say what they mean, and if they do say what they mean, it is usually during the heat of some kind of positive or negative passion and it frequently gets them into trouble!

No wonder computers have so much trouble with humans. They can’t possibly understand when someone says ‘yes’ and means ‘no’, whereas a person has a fine, discerning sense for such things, a sense that is supplemented by visual and aural cues, as well as body language. Computers have nothing of the sort. It’s either ‘yes’ or ‘no’ with them, with nothing in between. Yes or no is easy for them and they are untroubled by the output. The question, “Honey, do I look fat?” would offer them no challenges whatsoever. However, when asked in a human-to-human situation, it sends the mate into paroxysms of verbal twitching. Either answer will automatically be wrong and the consequences therefrom unpleasant. There is a lot of programming necessary to bridge that computer-human gap.

The concept of ‘fuzzy logic’ came into being partly to cross the machine-human gap. Programs designed for use on machines that can respond to situations that do not call for absolute answers need situations fill this ever-expanding area. The crossover between the rigid on-off thinking and the more ‘creative’ kind of the decision making process in the computer world is accelerating, particularly in instances where there is an absolute need for evaluating several distinct outcomes predicated on a given set of input data. Of course, that need has existed ever since man has built machines, but the technology to satisfy that need is just now catching up with human wishes.

‘Straight’ logic is just dandy as far as a computer is concerned. In the real world, no matter how hard liberals, neutrals or conservatives try, one plus one always equals two. Computers can do that in their sleep with one hard drive tied behind their back. On the other hand, with fuzzy logic, the equations are built on the shifting sands of human thought and they require more time and more computing power to get at the answer, which, when got, may not even be the ‘right’ answer. Talk about dithering! However, dithering is costly and consumers don’t like costly, so component manufacturers must push the physical boundaries of the chips. Just as doctors are now targeting specific cells to cure diseases and genetic defects, so are the technical world manufacturers targeting specific atoms to make things faster, better and cheaper.

Will limits be reached? In the future, what ‘throughput’ will be required and for what reasons? Is the speed of light the ultimate limiter of how fast computers are able to react? Are trans-luminal velocities available in this universe? Some theories call for and support speed faster than that of light. Newly discovered galaxies that are separated by distances that exceed the distance that they could have traveled since the big bang occurred require a different set of rules to explain their existence. Was the big bang a local event? How local? If not, then how did the newly discovered galaxies get so far apart?

We now find a need to speak a different language, a computer language in our everyday life. Over the years, various groups and professions have developed their own lingo, something within the structure of the lingua franca of that particular culture that conveys a particular set of information related to that specific group, regardless of whether it is a skill group or a socially related, distinct tribe. As an example, astronomer- mathematicians speak such an arcane language, commonly understood within their own close community, that what those outside this community hear is mostly unintelligible. Someone within the group has to take the time to break it down into simple terms for the other part of the world to grasp (and presumably, make it sound reasonable enough so that even politicians can understand it and continue funding the work).

Eventually, the same thing will apply to computers. Citizens of the world will be able to communicate with each other once they have learned to communicate better with the worldwide computer community. Right now, albeit with many exceptions, English seems to be the default language. It is the international language of the commercial airline industry and is used by all the pilots therein. With the exception of the copious usage of Latin nomenclature in the scientific fields, for the most part, English is the accepted norm around the world, just as the dollar is the commonly accepted currency in many countries, even though there is an already established official monetary system. Some things take longer than others to kick in, so it’ll be awhile until we get away from the ‘tower of Babel’ concept in human affairs. Once we can all speak ‘on the same page’ kind of thing, we can really start to advance in the computer relationships vis a vie communications. In this essay, I am not advocating an abandonment of linguistic diversity. In fact, I am proposing that we do just the opposite. French will always be French, and it is a beautiful, useful language, but what’s wrong with having a second, or even a third language? Nothing’s standing in the way of that kind of extra learning, but you have to be motivated to do so, to learn a different way of communicating.

That motivation will come and is in fact coming, gradually over a period of time, brought about by the necessity of joining the global social and commercial village, of which we are so much a part. Decisions in Bolivia do affect people in both Georgia’s. Like it or not, it is happening that way. The crucial need is the need that exists for us to be able to speak a global language. Isolationists are clinging a retrograde concept and there is a certain nostalgic understanding of the ideas that motivate the concept, but the overwhelming demand, the realization that if mankind is going to advance on it’s way to the stars, or work toward a better world, or even a less imperfect one, we have to work together and that requires a common communication base.

The island nation of Tuvalu consists mostly of wide-open Pacific Ocean, 500,000 square miles of it. That entire ocean is ‘surrounded’ by a mere 10 square miles of land, none of it higher than 15 feet above sea level. This land-ocean combination makes up the country, but scientists generally agree that the greenhouse effect has, and will continue to raise the level of the ocean until the islands are gone. ‘Scientists generally agree’ is the limiting phrase in the previous sentence. Some don’t. Many, many studies concerning the global warming problem is comprised of huge volumes of data being processed at many disparate locations, using information gathered from tens of thousands of sensors that measured a myriad of different oceanic, land and air parameters over many years. The global warming theories and studies involved have consumed millions and millions of computer and man-hours since their emergence in the 60’s. Talk about throughput!

If global warming is proved to be a viable theory, and more and more evidence is gathering that it will be, and if even the most radical steps that can be taken are taken to limit or decrease the output of CO2 gasses, the island nation of Tuvalu will still, in all likelihood, slowly sink beneath the waves. Will humans have caused this ecological disaster? Yes. Did they cause the extinctions of many, many animal species? Yes. Are there other ecological ‘bear traps’ out there that will ensnare us, given our own inability to recognize what we are doing? A resounding ‘yes!’ will suffice here. As an entire group, the human race needs to become aware of the potential of which we are capable and this we can only do through education and communication. Fluency enables! Humans, more urgently now than ever before, need to speak a common language.

Note from Ralph: The publishers of this newsletter have taken some risk in asking me to write something not directly related to their primary business of being a Premier IBM Business Partner. I will deeply appreciate any comments from ya’ll out there because, first, feedback tells me that the column is getting read and secondly, I am sure that someone out there has a different position or opinion. Laudatory comments are also welcome. Reach me at RMorin@keyinfo.com.

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